Which cities are poised to overtake Perth for 2020?
Perth’s growing city population is pushing the suburb of Fort Greene into contention for the title of “city of the future”.
The latest Census figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows Perth has grown by about 20 per cent since 2007.
But it’s still a far cry from the 19.3 per cent growth rate recorded by the region as a whole, which has led to a number of predictions that the suburb would overtake Perth in 2020.
The city’s population is set to rise by 5.4 per cent, from 7,800 people in the first quarter of 2020 to 10,500 people by 2021.
And it’s expected to overtake Fort Greenes population of around 2,200 people by 2035.
“We’re still seeing growth in Fort Green, but there’s a lot of people in Perth who are moving out of Fort Greens, moving out to the suburbs,” said Andrew Walker, an economist at the Australian National University.
“So Perth is a lot more like Perth in terms of the number of people who are actually going to live there in the next 20 years than we were in the last 20 years.”
There’s still quite a bit of work to be done in Perth, but we’re really close.
“He’s not wrong.
The number of Perth residents who live in suburbs has already exceeded the population of Fort Greene by about 30 per cent.
The area surrounding Fort Green has already gained a further 25,000 people.
But there are a number places that are set to become less and less popular with the suburbs.
The City of Perth has seen a significant drop in the number who commute to the city.
Fort Greene’s population has dropped by about 60 per cent in the past 20 years, while the number that moves from the city to the suburb has dropped in real terms by around 100 per cent – to about 3,400 people.
In the past 10 years, Fort Green and its surrounding suburbs have seen an increase in the rate of population growth, while Perth’s population growth has slowed, with the city’s per capita population increasing by just over 0.5 per cent annually since 2007 to 1,600 people.”
The growth of the suburbs is not being matched by the growth of Perth,” Walker said.”
And if Fort Green is in a situation where it’s not being a suburb anymore, then Perth is not going to be a suburb either.
“That’s a really big change for Perth.”
The most populous suburb in Perth is the South West, with an average of 2,500 residents per day, according to the latest census figures.
And the City of Yarra has about 7,100 people per day.
But even there, residents are moving away, with residents in Yarra’s suburbs moving to suburbs like Blacktown and The Junction.
“In Blacktown, we’re seeing a lot less people coming in, as well,” said Sarah Taylor, a research fellow at the University of Adelaide’s Population and Environment Research Centre.
“I think we’re just seeing the effects of the housing crisis in Blacktown starting to take hold and people moving into other parts of the city.”
The City Of Yarra is also experiencing its own housing crisis.
There are around 2.5 million people living in the city, compared to just over 1.2 million in Fort Greene.
That’s because of a change in the way property prices are calculated in the capital.
In 2017, Fort Greene’s land value was about $7 million more than its suburbs, while in 2016 the city was $9.6 million more.
But while Fort Green’s housing prices are now more than double what their suburbs are, it’s worth noting that there’s also a higher rate of unemployment and underemployment in Fort Greens.
Fort Green’s population was also hit hard by the mining boom.
The region’s economy has also struggled with the mining industry, and many workers have lost their jobs.
“What we’ve seen is that Fort Greens is going to continue to struggle for years to come, and it’s going to take some time for Fort Greens to catch up,” Walker says.
“But we have a very big population boom in the future, so we need to see that happen before we can see the suburbs overtake Perth.”